Ukraine's GDP may fall between 30%-50% in 2022, finance minister says - Financespiders

Ukraine's GDP may fall between 30%-50% in 2022, finance minister says - Financespiders

Ukraine's finance minister has said the country's economy could be half the size before Vladimir Putin's forces invaded, amid a mass exodus of citizens and industry shutdowns. Reuters reported the news, citing an unspecified televised interview on Saturday.

According to Serhiy Marchenko, Ukraine's GDP could fall by between 30% and 50% this year, per the interview reported by Reuters. The comments came as the country sought financial aid to combat falling tax revenues while holding off Russia's offensive.

On Saturday, Reuters reported that Marchenko was planning to visit Washington next week with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and central bank governor Kyrylo Shevchenko to meet with finance officials from G7 countries in a meeting chaired by the World Bank, citing sources.

In March, Reuters reported a televised interview from an unknown source in which Marchenko said the war had shut down 30% of Ukraine's economy.

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"Our tax revenues do not allow us to cover our needs; the main revenue stream is borrowing," Marchenko is reported to have said.

His latest assessment is broadly in line with the World Bank's forecast delivered on April 10, which projected a 45% contraction in Ukraine's GDP this year, citing displacement of people, infrastructure damage, and trade disruption.

Ukraine's economy is known for exporting commodities like corn and wheat, which S&P Global estimated at 12.8% and 10.5% of the world's exports, respectively, last year. The war has heavily disrupted the production and exporting of these and other goods.

An economic slump has been exacerbated by a vast humanitarian crisis that has dramatically reduced Ukraine's population. According to the UNHCR, nearly 4.8 million refugees have fled the country since February 24, further reducing the country's ability to generate economic output.

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Comparatively, Russia's economy is expected to shrink by up to 15% due to widespread sanctions, high inflation, and boycotts by Western companies.

But Putin will likely be spared a crippling recession by rising oil prices as Western countries continue to import Russian energy. Source: FinanceYahoo


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